Monday, November 24, 2008

Predictions

I would like to take the opportunity to make a few predictions and maybe stir some discussion. These are some of the directions I think the unemployment and tax situation in this country will be going.
First I do not care for the current bail out of bad business, it will only give a reason for more bad business in our financial and industrial sectors. I understand it but do not like it.
For now I feel our bailouts will not help the auto industry at all. Americans have little loyalty to our US products. They, for the most part, want inexpensive items regardless of where it is made. If the US auto industry folds with all of the industries that feed it, the unemployment levels with jump up significantly. Then add to this the soldiers returning from foreign deployment as the new government wants. I to want them to come home but we will need to plan for that increase in unemployment fillings. Even if they are on leave from jobs then the persons currently doing the jobs will be out.
Then looking at European countries and acknowledging a world market we can see where many countries have unemployment levels in double digits and all of this leads me to predict that ours will jump to 10% or greater for an extended period of time during the new presidents term.
This will of course lead to the need for higher taxes to pay for his projects and take care of the out of work citizens. His taxes will hit individuals as well as businesses. Companies, not wanting to lower their bottom lines and not being able to pass the increases on to customers in tough economic times, will be forced to lay off workers. Which will increase unemployment rates.
I also looked at individual income tax rates for European countries and found that almost all are higher than our 35% max here. Some are as much as 50% (this is total income tax) and they also have a VAT (value added tax) which is a tax on production costs passed on the the consumer and much like sales tax but it runs at rates like 19% for France. so the total tax burden can be close to 70% of ones income. This is unless I have completely misinterpreted the date but I have it here and it looks correct. So I predict that our income tax rates overall here, given the new administrations plans, will go up to 40-45% give or take. This is an overall average including state and local rates.